25
Jun

Tuesday Morning – Gassy Players Update, LPI

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

.

.

Market Sentiment Watch: Economic speakers today could saw markets (Bostic, Powell, Bullard). Energy land needs to see more data from EIA.  In today's post please find an expanded Gassy Players Update, comments and a requested cheat sheet for Permian gassy player LPI (down 64% since we passed on it last Fall), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Case-Shiller at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was 3.7%), 
  • We get consumer confidence at 10 am EST (F = 130.6, last read was 134.1),
  • We get new home sales at 10 am EST (F = 673,000, flat with last read). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – Gassy Players update (expanded), LPI
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »


24
Jun

Monday Morning

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

.

.

Market Sentiment Watch: Much quieter week on the economic data front. In energyland it's the calm before the storm as OPEC+ meets next week but we need to see further progress on the U.S. inventory front if prices are to continue to hover just under $60. We expect higher throughput but less robust internals from this week's Wednesday report.  In today's post please find The Week That Was and some other odds and ends. If you missed The Wrap please click here as we had a number of summary comments regarding last week if you don't have time for The Week That Was below. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Chicago Fed at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.45). 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - Case-Shiller, consumer confidence, new home sales,  
  • Wednesday - Durable goods, 
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, GDP revision, pending home sales, 
  • Friday - Personal income, consumer spending, core inflation, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Our week ahead
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »


22
Jun

Wrap – Week Ended 6/21/19

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

.

Items of note, not related to Iran:

  • U.S. throughput continued it's climb out of maintenance, reaching a post season high of 17.26 mm bopd, expect another 0.8 or so over the next several weeks. This may be tempered by the PES fire. 
  • Net imports continue to be beyond tame and well below range of year.   Exports came in at their 2nd highest level on record.
  • Gasoline demand set an all time record last week (not for the week of the year but for any week of the year).  The previous week was just short of the record.  EV impact trumped by low pump prices, high employment, and high airfares.   
  • EIA reflected a second week of reduced Lower 48 oil production, down another 0.1 mm bopd.  STEO and DPR have been reflecting slower growth; lower rig count is a lagging factor in their output, weekly giving that a nod now.
  • CFTC showing net length added for crude; first time of note since April.  Expect a bigger short cover in next Friday's figures. 
  • Permian and the HZ rig count continue to ebb.  

On natural gas: 

  • Bigger than Consensus expected and definitely bigger than Z4 expected weekly report.
  • Our thought is very extended shoulder season meets high but slowing dry gas supply on the weekly report but gas sank to 3 year lows (prompt down 8%, strip down 7%). 
  • Fundamental improvement being masked by mildness.  This too shall pass as we heat up but shoulders will continue to be problematic for pricing.  Strip is overdone to downside.  
  • Exports to Mexico set an all time high this week. 
  • Total net exports set an all time high this week.
  • Power burn continues to climb into the start of the summer, and has largely been ahead of year ago levels YTD despite the mildness. 
  • New cycle low for gas directed rigs. 

At Z4 Research:

  • Last Monday:  The Week That Was, comments on Iran (more threats to close Hormuz, uranium stockpile climbing towards JCPOA limits), comments on likely OPEC+ curb roll
  • Last Tuesday:  ZLT sector pies, ZLT near term reshuffle plan, comments and an updated cheat sheet for CPE (and they decided to finally redeem the preferred), comments on the EIA DPR (note the shale slowing)
  • Last Wednesday:  More Iran items, OPEC to early July, comments on the new CRK and a pro forma cheat sheet, 
  • Last Thursday:  The Oil Inventory Slide Show, yet more Iran noise with a US drone take down, further OPEC+ curb support chatter, comments and a cheat sheet update for CXO, big contract for OII. 
  • Last Friday: Comments and an updated cheat sheet for levered Eagle Ford/Delaware player CRZO and another AMZN tied contract for VWDRY. 
  • Service, oily names and even gassy names rebounded, largely on the Iran news induced oil price bounce.  Midstream names tread water. 

The trading blotter is updated.

Questions and comments under  The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

Questions about the site can be directed to zman@zmansenergybrain.com.

Have a good weekend. 

 


21
Jun

Friday Morning – CRZO, Permian Players Update

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

.

.

Market Sentiment Watch: Energy markets remain on edge. In today's post please find the the natural gas review (bigger than we expected, similar sized one next week despite a new record for net exports for the week on mild weather), comments and a cheat sheet update for CRZO, a revised Permian Players short form table, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get existing home sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.28 mm, last read was 5.19 mm).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - CRZO, Permian Players, VWDRY
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


20
Jun

Thursday Morning – CXO

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

.

.

Market Sentiment Watch: Energy up on increased U.S. / Iran tensions. In today's post please find the oil inventory review:

  • better than expected report highlighted by across the board draw downs,
  • a further move up in throughput (high historically, still low to last year),
  • all time record weekly gasoline demand,
  • a second consecutive week of reduction for EIA's weekly guess at Lower 48 oil production (waking up to reality in our view), 
  • below range net imports (exports were the 2nd highest on record)), 

Please also find the natural gas preview (Street still looks high to us, weekly data continue to impress), comments and a cheat sheet update for CXO, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Jobless Claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 220,000, last read was 222,000),
  • We get the Current Account at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was - $134.4 B),
  • We get Philly Fed 8:30 am EST (F = 8.0, last read was 16.6),
  • We get leading indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.2%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - CXO, OII
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »

Zman's Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… is is proudly powered by Wordpress
Navigation Theme by GPS Gazette

s2Member®