06
May

Z4 Research Test Drive

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19
Feb

Wrap – Week Ended 2/16/18

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Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Tuesday post. 

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The Blotter is updated.

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16
Feb

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch: Volatile and sloppy group action continues but the sideways trade is getting a boost from increasingly disciplined larger upstream player tone.  In today's post please find the natural gas storage review (updated hypothetical trough and peak levels ... revised lower), comments on the PES quarter (in line quarter, solid guidance, expecting continued fundamental improvement in 2018), comments on the CLR budget, and some other odds and ends. Enjoy the three day weekend. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Housing Starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.24 mm, last read was 1.192 mm),
  • We get building permits at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.3 mm),
  • We get the import price index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.1%),
  • We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 95.3, last read was 95.7),
  • The markets are closed Monday for Presidents' Day. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - PES, CLR
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


15
Feb

Thursday Morning – LPI

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Market Sentiment Watch: In today's post please find the oil inventory review (a modestly better than expected report in our view on the back of subdued crude builds during a time that normally sees large ones - thanks to low net imports and elevated for time of year refining that are more than offsetting EIA's view of ~ 1 mm bopd in YoY rise in U.S. oil production), the natural gas preview (bigger than recent or average draw this week before returning to smaller draw next week), comments on the LPI quarter (EBITDA modest beat on pre-announced volumes; share repurchase announced), and some other odds and ends. 

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get weekly jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 230,000, last week was 221,000),
  • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 17.7),
  • We get Philly Fed at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 22.2),
  • We get Industrial Production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read was 0.9%),
  • We get Capacity Utilization at 9:15 am EST (F = 78.0%, last read was 77.9%),
  • We get NAHB home builders' index at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 72). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - LPI, XEC
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


14
Feb

Wednesday Morning – FANG

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Market Sentiment Watch: No change to yesterday's opening, "Sitting on hands during the group bounce having added to a few names last week." In today's post please find comments on the FANG quarter (nice beat and initial dividend), comments on the AR quarter, the oil inventory preview, the natural gas inventory preview, and some other odds and ends. 

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (headline F = 0.4% vs 0.1% last month; Core F = 0.2% vs 0.3% last month,
  • We get retail sales at 8:30 am EST (headline F = 0.2% vs 0.3% last month; ex autos F = 0.4%, flat with last month),
  • We get business inventories at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.4%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - FANG, AR

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


13
Feb

Tuesday Morning – So Far This Quarter, VNOM

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Market Sentiment Watch: Sitting on hands during the group bounce having added to a few names last week. EIA's move to further increase it's forward view of U.S. oil production could very well lead to further choppiness for the group if weekly inventory numbers fail to cooperate near term (which seasonally is quite possible). We remain 78% in equities and 22% in cash and cash equivalents.  In today's post please find a new version of So Far This Quarter (comments on 24 names), an updated cheat sheet for VNOM with mini-models for 2018, and some other odds and ends. 

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • NFIB came in at 106.9 vs a prior reading of 104.9,
  • We get household debt for 4Q17 at 11 am EST (last read was 3.7%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – So Far This Quarter, VNOM
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »

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