06
May

Z4 Research Test Drive

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Not a member? Want to take the site for a spin? Try the Z4 Test Drive, 5 days for $25 (non recurring billing).  After that, if you like the site, log in as usual and choose one of the options from the Membership Options screen. 

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Questions about the site? Check out the How To ZEB link at left or send us an email at zman@zmansenergybrain.com.

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12
Dec

Tuesday Morning – ECR, OAS

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Market Sentiment Watch: Our thoughts are with those in California as well as along the Gulf Coast and Puerto Rico and the islands. As expected, news flow is picking up in between the major end of year holidays. In today's post please find comments and updated cheat sheet for ECR (we came, we saw, we like the new acquisition), comments on OAS' foray into the Delaware (in a nutshell we applaud the deal), the early read on oil inventories, and some other odds and ends.   

Stuff That Stocking Watch: Contact zman@zmansenergybrain.com for details. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • The NFIB small business index came in at 107.5 vs 103.8 last month,
  • We get PPI at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.4%),
  • We get the federal budget at 2 pm EST (no forecast, last month was -$137 B).  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – ECR, OAS
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »


11
Dec

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Energy group sentiment remains depressed relative to the commodities which they sell. Much the same as much of the 2017 story. Tax loss selling could be entering in. Thoughts of bitcoin could be entering.  The name get cheaper as they stand still however.  Last week was an odd one with the ZLT down nearly 4% and remaining up 13% over the last 3 months and ending down 17% YTD. We continue to stick to our knitting. Our views on both natural gas prices and oil prices this year have largely been on target. Our $55 view for 2018 (made back in February 2017) is likely to become Street normal soon. Estimates will be rising into the new year and traction will be found again as budgets and growth plans show discipline.  In today's post please find The Week That Was, a et of group multiples tables, comments on ECR, and some other odds and ends.  We expect group news flow to pick up between now and the Christmas holiday week. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get job openings at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 6.1 mm). 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - NFIB small business, PPI, federal budget, EIA STEO
  • Wednesday - CPI, FOMC announcement, Yellen press conference, 
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, retail sales, import prices, Markit manufacturing and services PMI, business inventories, 
  • Friday - Empire state index, industrial production, capacity utilization.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today –  Group multiples, ECR 
  5. Odds & Ends

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10
Dec

Wrap – Week Ended 12/8/17

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The ZLT was down nearly 4% last week, is up 13.3% in the last 3 months and is down 17.2% on the year. 

The Blotter is updated. We remain roughly 20% cash. 

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

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08
Dec

Friday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:  In today's post please find the natural gas review (small build vs a small expected draw, stocks remain in deficit territory and we expect the first in a series of larger-sized draws after next week, comments on BBG, and some other odds and ends. We expect group news flow to pick up next week. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 am EST (F = 200,000, last month was 261,000),
  • We get the unemployment rate at 8:30 am EST (F = 4.1%, last read was 4.1%),
  • We get average hourly earnings at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read was 0.0%$),
  • We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 99, last read was 98.5),
  • We get wholesale inventories at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.3%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - BBG, -----
  5. Odds & Ends

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07
Dec

Thursday Morning – CRZO

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Market Sentiment Watch:  Three day loss of traction post OPEC. In today's post please find the oil inventory review (bigger than expected crude draw and larger than expected but not larger than average distillate build lead to both measures falling vs their year ago and five year average levels while gasoline built more than expected dampening crude sentiment even as mogas stocks remain in good shape), the natural gas preview (much smaller than average report before the cold sets in), comments on CRZO, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 240,000, last read was 238,000),
  • We get consumer credit at 3 pm (no forecast, last read was $21 B). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - CRZO
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »

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