06
May

Z4 Research Test Drive

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Questions about the site? Check out the How To ZEB link at left or send us an email at zman@zmansenergybrain.com.

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19
Jan

Friday Morning – Oil Review, Natural Gas Review, SLB, IEA, NINE

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Market Sentiment Watch: Expected group pause remains in place as Street estimates for oil and the oily names continue to rise in front of the bulk of the 2018 budget announcements.  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory report review (the withdrawal was below consensus and our expectations for the week but the deficits to year ago and the five year average essentially tread water on the week; expect a modestly larger withdrawal next week and also please note the return of the hypothetical storage spaghetti graphs as well as the Z4 2018 trough and peak storage levels), the oil inventory review (across the board positive - see review section below), comments on SLB as they kick off the 4Q17 Service reporting season, comments on the monthly IEA report, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 98.0, last read was 95.9). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review - see hypothetical levels
  4. Oil Inventory Review 
  5. Stuff We Care About Today - SLB
  6. Odds & Ends

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18
Jan

Thursday Morning – Dualing Inventory Reports

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Market Sentiment Watch: Group still likely needs a pause until more news flow reveals more capital program details. In today's post please find the natural gas inventory preview, the oil inventory preview (API was benign after yesterday's close), comments on the OPEC Monthly, the weekly Bakken group multiples update, and many other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 250,000, last read was 261,000),
  • We get housing starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.28 m, last read 1.297 mm),
  • We get building permits at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.303 mm),
  • We get Philly Fed at 10 am EST (F = 98.0, last read was 95.9).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - Bakken Multiples, SN, SBOW
  4. Odds & Ends

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17
Jan

Wednesday Morning – Wattenberg Players and Another IPO

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Market Sentiment Watch: As noted yesterday, group is likely over due for a bit of a pause and crude has some near term headwinds that make further price appreciation unwarranted and probably unlikely. Current crude prices are more than fine for the ZLT (both Upstream and Service). In today's post please find comments two trades from yesterday, a repriced / updated Wattenberg Players short form multiples page with notes, comments on another soon to IPO Service name, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Industrial Production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.5%, last read was 0.2%),
  • We get Capacity Utilization at 9:15 am EST (F = 77.4%, last read was 77.1%),
  • We get the Home builders' index at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 74),
  • We get the Beige Book at 2 pm EST.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  Wattenberg, Service IPO
  4. Odds & Ends

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Continue Reading »


16
Jan

Tuesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Energy group probably watching oil a bit too much and in need of a rest.  Expect news flow to pick up very soon. In today's post please find the updated ZLT Positions graphs (we added an 18th name to the portfolio last week while holding cash to just over 20% of assets), The Week That Was, and some other odds and ends. In case you missed The Wrap here it is

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last month was 18.0),
  • The EIA Drilling Productivity Report comes out later today. 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Wednesday - Industrial production, capacity utilization, home builders' index, Beige Book, 
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, housing starts, building permits, Philly Fed, OPEC Monthly,
  • Friday - Consumer sentiment.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »


13
Jan

Wrap – Week Ended 1/13/18

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The ZLT was up ~ 1% last week and is up 5.0% on the year. 

Housekeeping Watch: Please note that the following group multiples and hedges have been added to the links at left for easy reference. They will be updated for pricing by Tuesday and will be there on a permanent basis going forward:

  • BAKKEN
  • GASSY
  • PERMIAN
  • WATTENBERG 
  • Two additional groups will be added in the next two weeks.

In case you missed our preview of LBRT's IPO, check it out here.  This first IPO of 2018 reached our 6 month upside target in the first minutes of trading though our target multiple was admittedly conservative and we established a starter position.  

The blotter is updated. 

The Z4 Research Positions page will be updated Monday. 

Enjoy the long weekend. 

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